Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Using the Interactive Graph

Just as we discussed in the last blog, the interactive graph is a useful
tool which visually demonstrates the development of over 100 countries in
different statistical categories from 1980 to 2006. In addition, you can
see the visual correlation between different categories.

For example, remember that by examining the behaviors of China, India,
Uganda, and the U.S., we determined that there is a positive relation
between the average base power consumed per household, given in Watts per
capita, and how ‘developed’ a nation is. If we want to see what
potential factors contribute to higher average base power consumption per
capita, we can easily do this using the graph. You place the main category
(in this case average base power consumption per capita) on the y-axis.
Then, on the x-axis, you cycle through the different variables you believe
has an impact on the main category. If the data set of a country over time
fits a positive regression model, then the variable is a potential
contributing factor to the main category.

In the case of average base power consumption per capita, using the method
above we can see that electricity generation, GDP, and HDI are all factors
which contribute to increased power consumption per household. Conversely,
other categories do not have such a strong linear or log-log relationship
when graphed. Take, for example, the total average base power consumed.
This is the approximate number of power plants at 200 MW needed to meet
this base power. If you compare it to a country’s population, the
regression model has a much weaker correlation compared to other
statistical categories. While correlation doesn’t necessarily imply
causation, from results such as this we can infer that it isn’t factors
like a country’s size, but rather factors like as electricity generation,
HDI and GDP that mainly dictate its power consumption.

It was from such data that our research team developed what we think is the
best way to combat poverty in so-called ‘developing’ nations such as
Uganda. If you have not read the December 2010 Science Policy Forum article
called Energy-Poverty-Climate Nexus, we highly recommend reading it. All of
our electricity generating devices are not only connected to poverty, but
also climate - we will talk more about the climate issue when we begin our
microgrid blogs. First, we will focus on poverty discussions.

No comments:

Post a Comment